On June 3, unit #5901 at One Rincon Hill sold for $3,200,000. Its owner had bought it from the developer in October 2007 for $2,125,000, a gain of 50.6 percent. Earlier the same year, unit #1207 in the same tower at 425 1st Street sold for $950,000. Its owner had paid $1,088,000 in May 2022, so it closed 12.7 percent below the purchase price. Both sales happened in the same building and the same year. The only difference was when each owner bought.
That spread is the clearest way to understand condos east of Market and south toward Mission Bay this fall. Neighborhood medians blend dozens of towers with different price histories. In this market, the building and the purchase year carry most of the information, and lenders look at the building before they look at the unit.
The Lender Underwrites the Tower Too
Fannie Mae's Selling Guide tells lenders to assess the condominium project itself as well as the borrower and the unit. The risks it lists include the project's finances, its physical condition and marketability, any litigation, and inadequate insurance. On its condo project status page, Fannie Mae says an ineligible project can block loan sales to Fannie Mae until the issue is resolved. Insufficient master insurance and critical repairs are among the common causes. The status tool is not a public directory of approved projects.
The rules are changing over the next few months. Fannie Mae's August 5, 2026 Selling Guide announcement removed its Limited Review process. Revised reserve standards apply to new loan applications starting January 4, 2027. For anyone writing an offer this winter, the association's budget and reserves are part of the financing. This is general information, not legal or financial advice. Confirm how these standards apply to a specific building and loan with your lender.
Prices in these towers also move one building at a time, and the neighborhood medians blend those buildings together.
What the Neighborhood Median Mixes Together
In August 2026, South Beach recorded 18 condominium sales at a median of $1,615,000, or $1,294 per square foot. The median unit went into contract in 12 days. Those figures beat the neighborhood's 2026 numbers through August: a $1,342,500 median, $1,204 per square foot and 24 days. Three closings at The Avery set the high end of the month. Without them, the August median was $1,598,888 at $1,265 per square foot.
Mission Bay showed the same problem from another direction. Its August median rose to $1,450,000, but price per square foot fell 7 percent from July because the median unit grew from 970 to 1,217 square feet. The median went up because bigger units sold. The price of space actually went down.
When a dozen or so sales a month are spread across this many towers, the monthly median mostly reflects which buildings happened to close that month. The building-level record through October 15, 2026, is more useful.
Ten Buildings, Ten Different Distances From the Peak
The table compares closings from January 1 through October 15, 2026, with the same window in 2025. Each building is also measured against its own highest annual price per square foot.
| Building | Median $/sq ft, 2025 window | Median $/sq ft, 2026 YTD | Building's record high | Median days on market, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| One Mission Bay | $1,220 | $1,328 | $1,452 in 2019 | 3 |
| Madrone | $1,172 | $1,301 | $1,301 in 2026 | 15 |
| Arden | $1,380 | $1,383 | $1,400 in 2019 | 13 |
| Park Terrace | $964 | $1,047 | $1,142 in 2022 | 14 |
| Lumina | $1,252 | $1,339 | $1,403 in 2018 | 12 |
| One Rincon Hill | $1,158 | $1,292 | $1,595 in 2016 | 22 |
| The Harrison | $1,113 | $1,238 | $1,639 in 2022 | 13 |
| The Infinity | $1,078 | $1,228 | $1,701 in 2015 | 30 |
| The Avery | $1,556 | $1,833 | $2,016 in 2019 | 80 |
| 181 Fremont | $1,806 | $1,558 | $2,589 in 2018 | 54 |
Almost every building is pricing above its 2025 level, so the direction of the 2026 market is consistent. The distance from each building's record high varies widely. Madrone in Mission Bay set its record this year, and Arden is within $17 a foot of its 2019 peak. The Infinity, by comparison, is about $470 a foot below its 2015 high.
At the top of the price range, 181 Fremont is the clearest example. Its 67 condominiums sit on floors 41 to 57 of the Jay Paul tower beside Salesforce Park. Only three units closed through October 15, compared with six in the same window of 2025. That is a small sample. The 2026 median of $1,558 a foot is 40 percent below the building's 2018 figure of $2,589. When a tower's first owners paid its highest prices, its resale record starts from those prices.
Speed doesn't follow the same order as price. One Mission Bay's median MLS-listed sale went into contract in 3 days, compared with 23 in 2025, and 13 of 16 sales went under contract within two weeks. Its median sale price of $1,474,000 is the building's highest annual median on record, but its price per square foot is still 8.5 percent below 2019. The Avery's per-foot figure rose sharply while its median days on market reached 80.
How the Purchase Year Shows Up in Paired Resales
Paired resales compare a unit's 2026 sale with its previous recorded sale, so they show how owners actually came out. Across these buildings, the results line up closely with purchase year.
- Bought before 2013, sold in 2026. At 170 Off Third, units bought in 2007 resold for gains of 11.6, 39.7 and 72.9 percent, and one bought in 2011 gained 54.3 percent. At Madrone, #336 was bought in 2012 and resold 79.5 percent higher. At Park Terrace, #320 was bought in 2008 and gained 60.5 percent. At One Rincon Hill, #2003 was bought in August 2012 and sold 54.6 percent higher.
- Bought between 2015 and 2019, sold in 2026. Lumina had 22 paired resales, with 12 gains and 10 losses. Units bought in 2015 ranged from 21.4 percent up at 338 Main #4E to 17.4 percent down at 338 Main #25C. Two $7,000,000 sales on Lumina's top floors ended close to their December 2015 prices, one 1.5 percent up and one 6.7 percent down. At The Harrison, units bought in 2017 and 2018 all resold below their purchase prices, while units bought in 2016 all resold above. At One Mission Bay, three units bought in the developer's November 2017 sell-out resold this year within a range of 0.5 percent down to 2.9 percent up.
- Bought from 2019 through 2022, sold in 2026. At 181 Fremont, #54J was bought in May 2019 and resold 17.9 percent lower, and #56C was bought in December 2021 and resold 21.2 percent lower. At The Avery, #4205 was bought in 2022 and resold 15.5 percent lower.
Mission Bay's mid-rises don't fit the pattern as neatly. Arden's paired resales were gains in six of seven cases, including #1303, bought in 2023 and resold 31.5 percent higher. The exceptions are in buildings already trading near their record highs. In most of the towers, a 2026 sale only shows a gain if the seller bought below today's per-foot level, and in several towers today's level is still below what the building sold for in the late 2010s.
A buyer can use this before making an offer. The gap between a building's current price per square foot and its record high shows what earlier owners paid in that same tower. The building's paired resales show how those owners have done when they sold.
Carrying Costs Follow the Building Too
Price history is one cost that comes with the building. Monthly dues are another. One Steuart Lane #906 carried dues of $3,904 a month when it resold on July 15. At Radiance in Mission Bay, #802 closed on June 4 with dues of $1,340, and #509 was listed at $1,225,000 with dues of $1,244. The San Francisco Business Times reported HOA fee increases of up to 6 percent for 2026. In July, The San Francisco Standard described a buyer who passed on a newer high-rise because of steep dues and bought a two-bedroom SoMa condo that sold in June for $575,000 after nearly a year on the market.
Dues are paid every month for as long as you own, and they come up again when you sell, because the next buyer and the next buyer's lender will review the same association budget. They are a cost of the building in the same way its price history is.
A Few Direct Questions
Is the South Beach market rising in 2026? Overall, yes, but unevenly. Most of the buildings above sold at a higher price per square foot through October 15 than in the same window of 2025, and many sold faster. Several remain well below their own records.
Does a fast sale mean the price is at its peak? No. One Mission Bay had the fastest median contract time in this group at 3 days, and its price per square foot was still below its 2019 figure.
What should I ask for about a specific building? Ask for its per-foot record by year, its recent paired resales, its current dues, and the association documents your lender will review.
Choosing a condo in South Beach or Mission Bay means choosing a building's price history, its association, and the year its current owner bought. The Warrin Team can review that record with you for the specific towers you are considering before you write an offer. Request a private consultation to compare them side by side.
